Nuclear Modernization VS Disarmament: The NPT at a breaking point

The Nuclear Non-Proliferation regime which established on the fundamental principle of nuclear bargain between NWS and NNWS are now facing a legitimacy crisis. With Five nuclear power states continue to modernize their nuclear weapons while bypassing their disarmament obligations under the NPT. The US comes first in this race with a total of about $1.5 trillion spending for the advancement and maintaitence of its nuclear triad. In May 2026, the review conference also failed to adopt consensus over the dispute on Iran nuclear program and P5 states opposing disarmament. China's current ambitions to expand its nuclear warheads from 300 to 1000 by 2030, while UK and France following the lead significantly contributed to the nuclear security dilemma for NNWS and forcing them to rethink their commitment to not developed a nuclear weapons under the NPT. The power imbalance among states giving a clear message to NNWS that the nuclear power is the only guarantee for their security. The Russia's invasion of Ukraine that gave up its nuclear weapons and large amount of enriched uranium in 1994 further fueled this narrative.

The recent estimate by SIPRI reveals, global nuclear warheads reached upto 12,241 in 2025, with 9,614 in military stockpiles. All NWS are largely engaged in pursuing modernization of the nuclear arsenals with global nuclear spending reached to $119 billion this year. Furthermore, the New START treaty between Russia and US expired in February 2026, with two largest NWS are now left with no binding agreement between them. However, the current status of the NPT is confined to management rather than containment of the nuclear arsenals for which it was designed or established which resonate the death of political will.